Saturday, January 20, 2018

American misandry!

From Reuters-Ipsos, the percentages of people, by selected demographic characteristics, who think America would be better off with fewer men more women in politics. "Don't know" responses are excluded (N = 5,250):


In a zero-sum game like politics, when one group gains power it is necessarily at the expense of another group. Normal people tend not to think beyond obvious first-order effects, though. The logical conclusion of a response favoring more women in politics is that said response simultaneously--and necessarily--favors fewer men in politics.

It's both a reminder of how much influence wording can have on polling results and also how Western countries have managed to promise ever increasing future benefits while running national debts and unfunded liabilities to the tune of infinity trillion dollars.

Overall, 7% of respondents said that "America would be worse off with more women in politics". Among Trump-voting white men over the age of 35, 14% said as much. In what is becoming a recurring pattern, young white MAGAMEN are dissenting from the anti-male #MeToo feminization that has settled over our sick civilization at rates unmatched by any other segment of the population. Some 28% of Trump-voting white men under the age of 35 asserted that more women in politics is bad for America:


The sample size wasn't quite large enough to show results for Trump-voting white men under 30, but for all Trump-voting men under 30, it was a couple ticks higher still, at 30% saying America would be worse off with more women in politics. Here's to yet another encouraging sign from Gen Z's fine young white men!

Friday, January 19, 2018

Modest brown slowdown

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in Hispanic births from 2015 to 2016, by state (for whites see here and for blacks see here). Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) West Virginia+14.5
2) South Dakota+13.4
3) New Hampshire+9.1
4) Alabama+6.7
5) Ohio+6.4
6) Kentucky+4.5
7) Connecticut+4.2
8) South Carolina+3.9
9) Mississippi+3.3
10) Washington+2.9
11) Florida+2.8
12) Massachusetts+2.7
13) Tennessee+2.7
14) Rhode Island+2.6
15) Missouri+2.3
16) Colorado+2.1
17) Pennsylvania+2.1
18) Oklahoma+2.0
19) Iowa+1.5
20) District of Columbia+1.5
21) North Carolina+1.5
22) Arkansas+1.4
23) Nevada+1.3
24) Utah+1.1
25) Maryland+1.1
26) Wyoming+1.0
27) North Dakota+0.9
28) Virginia+0.8
29) Georgia+0.7
30) Nebraska+0.7
31) Michigan+0.5
32) Minnesota+0.4
33) Alaska+0.1
34) Kansas+0.0
35) Hawaii(0.3)
36) Oregon(0.6)
United States(0.7)
37) Idaho(0.8)
38) Arizona(0.9)
39) Wisconsin(1.5)
40) Texas(1.8)
41) New York(2.0)
42) California(2.3)
43) Indiana(2.5)
44) Louisiana(2.7)
45) New Jersey(2.8)
46) Vermont(2.9)
47) Illinois(3.7)
48) Montana(4.4)
49) Maine(5.2)
50) New Mexico(6.1)
51) Delaware(6.6)

Courtesy

Most states saw a year-over-year increase, but nationally the number of Hispanic births in 2016 declined modestly from 2015 on account of both California and Texas, together containing nearly half the country's total Hispanic population, experiencing larger birth declines than the rest of the US.

A couple of noticeable trends are visible--fewer births in the highly Hispanic Southwest and more births in the South. While white and black births in Alaska and Hawaii are in free fall, Hispanic births are steady in the country's non-contiguous states.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

The dark decline

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in non-Hispanic black births from 2015 to 2016, by state (for whites, see here). Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) South Dakota+10.7
2) North Dakota+6.8
3) Massachusetts+0.6
4) Connecticut+0.3
5) District of Columbia+0.1
6) Florida(1.3)
7) Iowa(1.6)
8) Georgia(2.3)
9) Texas(2.6)
10) Minnesota(3.1)
11) Alabama(3.2)
12) Mississippi(3.3)
13) Maryland(3.5)
14) Louisiana(3.8)
15) Tennessee(4.9)
16) North Carolina(5.0)
17) Delaware(5.2)
United States(5.3)
18) Nevada(5.3)
19) Indiana(5.5)
20) Virginia(5.6)
21) Illinois(5.7)
22) Ohio(5.9)
23) Michigan(6.0)
24) New York(6.4)
25) Arkansas(6.8)
26) Kentucky(7.1)
27) South Carolina(7.1)
28) Wisconsin(7.5)
29) Missouri(7.6)
30) New Jersey(9.4)
31) Idaho(9.6)
32) Pennsylvania(9.8)
33) Nebraska(10.1)
34) Arizona(10.9)
35) Maine(11.2)
36) California(11.3)
37) Oklahoma(12.0)
38) New Hampshire(12.2)
39) Kansas(12.6)
40) Colorado(12.9)
41) West Virginia(15.9)
42) Washington(16.3)
43) Rhode Island(17.8)
44) Utah(19.1)
45) Hawaii(19.9)
46) Alaska(24.4)
47) New Mexico(25.6)
48) Wyoming(27.6)
49) Oregon(29.2)
50) Montana(36.0)
51) Vermont(46.6)

Courtesy

Eighteen states show double-digit percentage decreases in births in 2016 compared to 2015. None of those states are heavily black, nor are they on their way to becoming so. Nationwide, the black fertility rate per capita is still about 20% higher than the white fertility rate is, but the gap has been narrowing for decades. At the current rate, white and black fertility will have reached parity in a couple of decades, and the total fertility rate before that. Can't wait to see the major media celebrate the elimination of that gap!

The east-west divide in changes in fecundity is even starker with black births than it is with white births. As Feryl will undoubtedly notice, the hot, swampy tropical South suits blacks.

The energy boom in the Dakotas have attracted a lot of younger people from all of the country. Americans will do jobs Americans won't do if the wages are right, and while they've receded some from their peaks a few years ago, it's a laborer's market in both those states. Black births are up considerably there.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

The unbirth of a nation

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in non-Hispanic white births from 2015 to 2016, by state. Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) District of Columbia+3.1
2) Maine(0.6)
3) Mississippi(1.2)
4) New Jersey(1.5)
5) Utah(1.8)
6) Michigan(1.9)
7) North Carolina(2.0)
8) Wisconsin(2.1)
9) Iowa(2.1)
10) Delaware(2.3)
11) Indiana(2.3)
12) Minnesota(2.3)
13) Nebraska(2.4)
14) New Hampshire(2.5)
15) South Dakota(2.5)
16) Alabama(2.5)
17) Kentucky(2.6)
18) Louisiana(2.9)
19) Massachusetts(2.9)
20) Tennessee(2.9)
21) South Carolina(2.9)
22) New York(2.9)
23) Missouri(2.9)
24) Idaho(3.0)
25) Colorado(3.0)
26) Vermont(3.0)
27) Arkansas(3.1)
28) Florida(3.2)
29) Ohio(3.2)
30) Oregon(3.3)
31) New Mexico(3.4)
32) North Dakota(3.5)
United States(3.5)
33) Maryland(3.5)
34) Washington(3.6)
35) Illinois(3.7)
36) Georgia(3.9)
37) Virginia(3.9)
38) Pennsylvania(4.0)
39) Connecticut(4.2)
40) Kansas(4.6)
41) Texas(4.7)
42) Arizona(4.7)
43) Montana(5.0)
44) Rhode Island(5.2)
45) West Virginia(5.4)
46) California(6.3)
47) Nevada(6.8)
48) Wyoming(7.0)
49) Oklahoma(8.3)
50) Alaska(11.5)
51) Hawaii(23.9)


Only the Imperial Capital saw more white babies in 2016 than in 2015. The South and Upper Midwest are doing relatively well holding their own. The Mountain and Pacific time zones are in rough shape, with Mormon Utah managing only to be a modest exception. The writing is on the wall for Arizona and then for Texas, states Trump won by 3 points and 9 points, respectively. The country's two non-contiguous states are in free fall.

As the Derb is fond of saying, numbers are of the essence. We can't rebuild our civilization with someone else's babies. If the trend swings positive in 2017--the data will be released in late Spring or early Summer--Trump will be the greatest president since at least Dwight Eisenhower.

Next we'll look at non-whites. Decline is everywhere.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Three cheers for saying shithole

Nothing causes more outrage than a statement that is both obviously true and fervently wished by everyone to be untrue.

Trump's alleged comments were heaven sent. At minimum they stave off DACAmnesty for another couple of months. More likely, they are its swan song. By the time DACA is set to expire in March, primaries will be looming large in the minds of congress critters across the country. Any (R) who votes for a bill that includes amnesty is in trouble. Any (D) who votes for a bill that allows Trump to claim an immigration enforcement victory is in trouble. Ergo, no bill.


What is now most likely is that DACA expires in a couple months to a spate of open borders histrionics that are largely ignored and quickly forgotten by most people. The invaders don't get to chain their villages in and they're subject to deportation just like other invaders are. I get to say, with great relief, "told you so" to Agnostic.

Additionally, Trump's comments expand the Overton Window yet again, something he's been doing consistently for 30 months now. On just about any metric save for fertility, sub-Saharan Africa and its Caribbean diaspora countries fill out the bottom of the list.

Where do the new church ladies go after they're done scolding "that is NOT okay"? Get past the moral indignation and we're left with an acknowledgment that the 45th President of the United States of America is correct in his grim assessment of Africa. We've come a long way since the Watsoning.

Now let's pass immigration legislation that takes this reality into account. Democrats don't have to get on board. The tax cuts were passed without the support of a single Democrat. Make Democrats win in 2018 on supporting amnesty and immigration from Somalia and Sudan. Make waffling GOPe cucks contemplate fending off primary challenges on supporting amnesty and immigration from Somalia and Sudan.

This is worth going to the mat for. Demographics are destiny. Everything is downstream of immigration. There is nothing laudable about sacrificing our posterity to Moloch, god of Diversity!, because it makes us feel good about ourselves in the moment to pretend it is not the case. That's not moral courage, it's cowardice.